Saturday, April 30, 2011

Hazardous Weather Outlook 4/30-5/1/2011

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY IF
STORMS CAN ACTUALLY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IF ANY OCCUR...THEN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OUT OF OUR AREA...BUT IF
ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP FURTHER EAST...THE HEAVY RAIN RISK WOULD
INCREASE AS ALL ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.



***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Storms, Heavy Rain for Sunday 5/1/2011

A storm system with a slow moving front may bring strong to severe storms to the ARKLAMISS region for Sunday night into Monday.  With good gulf moisture return, locally heavy rains may accompany these storms.



***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

The Killer - by Marshall Ramsey

Mississippi editorial cartoonist and talk radio host Marshall Ramsey wrote a short story about yesterday's devestating tornado outbreak across the South.  Click on The Killer to read this great work.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Graphicast 4/27/2011

Although this graphic shows the primary risk for tornadoes to be off to the south and east of the Delta area, we will see the potential for severe weather to develop during the day.  As the day warms, expect atmospheric conditions to support thunderstorm development.  High winds, hail, and tornadoes cannot be ruled out for any specific area.


***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Hazardous Weather Outlook - 4/27/2011

NOTE:  There are two Hazardous Weather Outlooks below.  Please notice the list of counties to determine which is appropriate for your area.  These are early statements for the day.  More may follow.

ADDITIONAL NOTE:  Updates to this blog may be less frequent for today's events, as the author's property sustained minor damage that will require cleanup during the day today.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
535 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-034-281045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-
535 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... 
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE 
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH AND 
LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER ALTHOUGH A TORNADO 
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. 

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND 
PONDING WATER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING 
AREAS. LOCAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS 
TRACK REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. 

THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING AND RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY 
TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WHEN A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM 
MOVES INTO THE AREA. 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER 
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

MSZ025>033-035>061-281045-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
535 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE 
AREA TODAY. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER AND 
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE 
STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF TORNADOES 
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONG TORNADOES...POSSIBLY 
LONG TRACK...WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND 
PONDING WATER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING 
AREAS. LOCAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS 
TRACK REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.

THE AIR MASS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING IN STRONG SOUTHERLY 
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO 
THE REGION TODAY WILL PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
   
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER 
OPERATIONS...WILL BE LIKELY TODAY. 

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Tornado Watch until 5:00AM 4/27/2011


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 222
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   935 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST ALABAMA
          PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
          MUCH OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
          MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 935 PM
   UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
   
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
   
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
   SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TUPELO
   MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 215...WW 217...WW
   218...WW 219...WW 220...WW 221...
   
   DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
   THRU THE NIGHT. WITH VERY STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND MLCAPES
   AOA 2500 J/KG LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONG...DAMAGING TORNADOS.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Graphicast - 7:30 PM 4/26/2011

NWS Jackson just posted this information, and it looks like the Delta area will have a couple of hours before we see any storms.  There have been reports of damage to our north in Coahoma County, but that weather is moving northeast away from us.  Storms developing over west-central Louisiana and southwest Arkansas will be moving into our area later tonight.  As always, things can change quickly, so stay alert!



***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Updated Area Forecast Discussion - 5:30 PM 4/26/2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT CURRENTLY UNFOLDING...TIME FRAME
IS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK READY TO UNFOLD FROM THE 
ARKLATEX THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA INTO AL AND TN VALLEY TONIGHT 
INTO WED. THIS EVENT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 
24HRS THEN A SHIFT TO COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUICKLY RESPONDING AND 
RECOVERING FROM THE MORNING STORM COMPLEX. BASED OFF VAPOR 
IMAGERY...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED IN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. 
IT IS THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE MAIN DIGGING TROUGH...THAT IS 
CAUSING SURFACE PRESSURES TO LOWER ACROSS TX WHICH IS IN TURN ALLOWING 
PRESSURES TO FALL OVER OUR REGION. FORECAST MODELS SEEM TO BEING 
WELL WITH THE ABOVE FEATURES I MENTIONED AND SHOW THE RAPID RESPONSE 
TO THE WIND FIELDS AND RECOVERY OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TAKING THE VARIOUS 
MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HI-RES OUTPUT...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS 
APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE VARIOUS EMBEDDED WAVES FROM LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON...EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND THEN ON WED.

THE AREAS UNDER THE GREATEST RISK HAVE NOT CHANGED. LOCATIONS NORTH 
OF I-20 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE GREATEST RISK WITH AREAS ALONG AND S OF 
I-20 HAVING A MORE ISOLATED RISK. THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL HAVE TO 
COMPETE WITH LOW/MID LEVEL CAPPING AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT 
WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP EVEN IN THE FACE SUCH INTENSE 
FORCING. HOWEVER...IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY 
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH END SEVERE STORMS. THE NORTHERN HALF WILL LIKELY 
HAVE SOME CAP...BUT IT WON'T BE AS STRONG AND THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE 
AND ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS. THE REPETITIVE 
EXPECTATION OF STORMS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS 
THE NORTH WITH 3-6 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD 
ALSO OCCUR. DUE TO THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF THE FLASH FLOOD 
WATCH.

THE SEVERITY OF THIS EVENT WILL ULTIMATELY COME DOWN TO STORM MODE 
(SUPERCELL VS SQUALL LINE). AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS AS THE AREA WILL 
SEE A MIXTURE OF BOTH THROUGH THIS EVENT. WITH ANY SUPERCELL 
STORM...THERE WILL EXIST THE POSSIBILITY OF LONG TRACK STRONG 
TORNADOES....VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH. AS FOR ANY 
LINE SEGMENT...DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH 
HAIL AND TORNADOES ALSO A SUBSTANTIAL RISK. EITHER WAY AND WHICH 
EVER MODE OCCURS...THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TIMING...THERE IS NO SPECIFIC TIME...JUST A LARGE WINDOW OF 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N HALF FROM NOW THROUGH WED 
AFTERNOON. I WOULD SAY THAT THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL WAIT 
UNTIL AT LEAST MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING WED AFTERNOON. I DO FEEL 
CONFIDENT THAT THINGS WILL PUSH EAST AND EXIT THE AREA BY 7 PM WED.

IN ADDITION TO ALL THE SEVERE WEATHER...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT 
AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR ON WED AS 
THE AREA WARMS AND MIXES DOWN THE INTENSE WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. 
ADDITIONALLY...WHEN THE DRY LINE MOVES ACROSS THE W/NW 
AREAS...DEEPER MIXING WILL OCCUR AND HELP TO BRING DOWN WINDS OF 
40-50 MPH. FOR NOW...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR ALL OF THE AREA. 
PORTIONS OF THE W/NW MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING. THIS WILL BE 
LOOKED AT CLOSER IN LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATED AS NEEDED.

BEYOND 8 PM TOMORROW...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET WITH COOLER AND MORE 
SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NEXT REAL CHANCE AT PRECIP LOOKS TO 
WAIT UNTIL SUN OR MON.
 
 

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

On Twitter...

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Tornado Watch until 10:00 PM 4/26/2011

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION - NWS doesn't use language this strong very often.  Please stay weather aware tonight!!!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 217
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   305 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          EASTERN ARKANSAS
          SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
          WESTERN KENTUCKY
          SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INCLUDING THE BOOTHEEL
          NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
          WEST TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
   1000 PM CDT.
   
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
   
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH OF FORT
   CAMPBELL KENTUCKY TO 35 MILES EAST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...WW
   215...WW 216...
   
   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AR INTO WESTERN KY.  A FEW OF THESE
   INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THE RISK OF
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
   STORMS FORM TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE WATCH AREA.  VERY
   STRONG SHEAR PROFILES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WATCH PERIOD
   SUGGEST THAT PDS WORDING IS APPROPRIATE...WITH STRONG TORNADOES
   POSSIBLE.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Special Weather Statement - 3:00pm 4/26/2011

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE DELTA TONIGHT...
...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI 
WEDNESDAY...

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR 
STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO 
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OUTBREAK OF SEVERE 
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ARKLAMISS REGION...ESPECIALLY IN 
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME 
INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE 
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE INITIAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE DELTA 
TONIGHT...WHERE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. THIS RISK 
COULD SHIFT AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO COLUMBUS BY 
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE OVER THE DELTA TONIGHT. 
THEN...AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE 
REGION WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WITH THE MOST 
INTENSE SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...STRONG...LONG TRACKED 
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WIND 
GUSTS TO 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS 
CERTAIN. HOWEVER...IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...THEY WILL 
BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF SIGNIFICANT 
SEVERE WEATHER.

PEOPLE ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOVE TO SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR 
AREA OR THREATENING WEATHER IS OBSERVED.
 
*******************************************************************
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
   
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS TO THE MO
BOOTHEEL/WESTERN KY/FAR SOUTHERN IL
   
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
VALID 261941Z - 262115Z
   
CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS FOR A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS
EASTERN AR INTO WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
OVER THE PAST HOUR...VISIBLE SATELLITE REFLECTS DEEPENING CUMULIFORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL AR INTO WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY...WITH INCIPIENT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY NOTED EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. WITH STRONG HEATING
/ALREADY NEAR 80F OR ABOVE/ OCCURRING ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...MODIFICATIONS TO A SPECIAL 18Z LITTLE ROCK OBSERVED RAOB
SUGGEST LITTLE CINH REMAINS. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASES LATER TODAY...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE
INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD
SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS EVENING /AS A LOW
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MARKEDLY INCREASE/...INCREASING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL NECESSITATE A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.


***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

WX Conf Call Notes - 4/26/2011

  • Outbreak of severe storms over next 36 hours 
  • Several rounds possible over Southeast Arkansas, Northwest Mississippi and Northeast Louisiana starting late this afternoon
  • Most of the rest of the area will not see severe weather until late tonight or Wednesday 
  • Strong, long-track tornadoes possible 
  • Weather set-up is similar to that of storm/tornado outbreak of April 15 weekend.
The tornado risk is greatest tonight for Delta counties (Bolivar, Washington, Sunflower, Leflore, Humphreys, Sharkey, Issaquena, Tallahatchie, Coahoma, Quitman).  The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of Northwest Mississippi and east-central Arkansas under a "High Risk" for severe thunderstorms and tornado development.  The "high risk" terminology is only used a scant few times per year, so this is significant.  Timing for storms is uncertain, but expect development to begin after 3:00 PM today for western areas, and lasting through the night.  The timing uncertainty is due to the possibility that discreet supercell storms could develop ahead of an organized line of storms.
 
The tornado risk area moves east during the day Wednesday, for areas generally along and east of the I-55 corridor (Leflore, Carroll, Grenada, Holmes, Yazoo and areas east of those).
 
A flash flood watch is in effect for the Highway 82 corridor in the Delta counties through Wednesday afternoon.  Additionally the Mississippi River will be rising over the next couple of weeks, thus affecting backwater areas such as the Sunflower and Yazoo rivers and their related drainage areas.
 


 

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

HZ WX Outlook, Forecast Discussion - 11:45 AM 4/26/2011

NOTE:  I will update this site again around 2:00 PM, following a conference call with the weather service.  In the meantime, this Area Forecast Discussion gives some insight to what we'll see later today and tonight.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1142 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TORNADOES...
POSSIBLY STRONG AND LONG TRACKED...VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

AN UNSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE SPRING IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN A RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
*********************************************************************
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1115 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT PROBABLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY...

.UPDATE...AFTER AN ACTIVE WEATHER MORNING...MORE STORMS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND ON WED. TO START OFF...THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE NW AND W. TEMPS WERE
ALSO ADJUSTED WARMER TO CATCH THE WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR A PERIOD BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP. BASICALLY...MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH 5-6 PM WITH ONLY THE FAR NW
AREAS HAVING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAINLY AFTER 4 PM.

AS FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING...OVERNIGHT AND ON WED. A
VERY COMPLEX AND POWERFUL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION. THE SEVERITY
OF THE EVENT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON STORM MODE (SUPERCELL VS LINEAR) AND
THE EVOLUTION OF STORM COMPLEXES. HOWEVER...BASED OFF THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY LONG LIVED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. IF THE MODE IS MORE LINEAR...THEN DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 60-80 MPH WINDS. HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE TIMING OF THIS IS EXTREMELY
TOUGH TO PINPOINT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
TIME WILL EXIST WHERE THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL
GENERALLY START FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AS WELL.
AS FOR LOCATION...DATA SUGGESTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS AT
THE GREATEST RISK...BUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH PORTIONS IF STORM EVOLUTION SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. MORE DETAILS
WILL BE OFFERED THIS AFTERNOON CONCERNING THIS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT.

UPDATED STORM PREDICTION CENTER GRAPHICS - Areas of Northwest Mississippi have now been added to the "High" risk area for severe thunderstorms today and tonight.   

Severe Thunderstorm Potential valid until 7:00 AM 4/27/2011
 Tornado Outlook valid until 7:00am 4/27/2011
 Wind Outlook valid until 7:00 AM 4/27/2011
 Hail Outlook valid until 7:00 AM 4/27/2011


***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Mississippi River Flooding

Some of our readers have property interests along the Mississippi River.  While I've not posted routine flood information on this site, I think we are in a unique situation regarding river stage forecasts.  The graphic below is a rough estimate of stages and crest dates.   This forecast is dependent on total rainfall in the upper Mississippi River valley, as well as rainfall we have locally.

It is worth noting that the forecast crests challenge the floods of 1973 and 1937.


***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Hazardous Weather Outlook for 4/26/2011

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
612 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS BEING DAMAGING WIND TO 60 MPH
AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH AND
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. PONDING WATER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ROADWAYS AND IN
LOW LYING AREAS. LOCAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE
STORMS TRACK REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE FLOODING RISK IS
MAINLY FOR NEAR THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER. THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS. PONDING
WATER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. LOCAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS TRACK REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY AND IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
 
Severe Storms Potential until 7:00 AM 4/27/2011 - Note, the use of "HIGH" potential on the map is a rare event.

Tornado Potentials until 7:00 AM 4/27/2011

Hail Potentials until 7:00 AM 4/27/2011
Wind Potentials until 7:00 AM 4/27/2011

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Outlook for Tuesday 4/26/2011

Here's a brief overview of what we can expect for Tuesday, April 26, 2011.  Of course, this is subject to change, and it likely will.  I'll update as soon as possible.


***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Monday, April 25, 2011

Tornado Watch #207 until 4:00am 4/26/2011

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 207
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   925 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
          SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
          MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM UNTIL
   400 AM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
   GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON
   MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204...WW 205...WW 206...
   
   DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AR HAVE EVOLVED INTO A
   SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL CONTINUE E/SEWD INTO CENTRAL MS.  WHILE
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES
   AND MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOS IN THE SQUALL LINE.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
302 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY TIMING FOR A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN 9 PM AND 9 AM AS A BAND OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TO 75 MPH...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE DELTA NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM DELHI TO GRENADA. IN THIS AREA IN PARTICULAR A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BAND OF STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE
SAME AREA. THIS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE PRIMARY
RISK FOR THIS WOULD BE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TALLULAH TO MACON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ANOTHER EPISODE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO BECOME PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO THE PRODUCTION OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES.

THERE ALSO EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IF STORMS BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. THIS RISK IS MAINLY FOR AREAS WITHIN THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

WX Conf Call notes 4/25/2011

  • Severe thunderstorm risk continuing for at least portions of the region now through Wednesday
  • Heavy rain risk through Wednesday focusing along and north of Highway 82 corridor
  • Torrential rain for the mid-Mississippi valley setting the stage for record flooding in may along lower Mississippi River
  • Generally quiet weather expected for latter half of the week.

There is high confidence that severe weather will develop over the ARKLAMISS tonight well ahead of a cold front in Oklahoma and Arkansas.  The chance for strong tornadoes exists tonight.  This line will sweep through late tonight.  However, storms will begin to re-develop Tuesday.  The cold front to our west will not move quickly, therefore we will still have a chance of severe weather through Wednesday as the front does move to the east.

Instead of an organized squall line, we can expect to see development of supercell storms that present a higher risk of tornado activity.

Significant rainfall over northern Mississippi, added to recent rains, will increase the risk of flash flooding along and north of the Highway 82 corridor.





The following graphics were issued by the Storm Prediction Center, and in order of appearance, represent the forecasts for Tuesday, starting with the overall outlook, the tornado outlook, the wind outlook, and the hail outlook.





***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Hazardous Weather Outlook 4/25/2011

This is the current Hazardous Weather Outlook for 4/25/2011 at 10:00am.  We've got a regularly scheduled conference call with the National Weather Service at 2:00pm today.  I'll post a summary of the notes from that call later this afternoon.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
555 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR ALL
AREA...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE DELTA REGION.
HERE...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A RAYVILLE TO KOSCIUSKO TO STARKVILLE
LINE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE STORM MODE...THERE COULD EXIST A FEW
SUPERCELL STORMS ALONG WITH A EVOLVING SQUALL LINE. ANY SUPERCELL
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF A SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPS...THEN THE RISK WILL BE MORE WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ANOTHER EPISODE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY...AREAS NORTH OF
I-20 WILL HAVE THE RISK INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RISK WILL SHIFT A BIT
ON WEDNESDAY TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 WITH AN ENHANCED
RISK FOR AREAS EAST OF I-55 AND NORTH OF I-20. ONLY A FEW STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL EXIST IN A ENVIRONMENT WITH A RARE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THERE ALSO EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT IF STORMS BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THIS
RISK IS MAINLY FOR AREAS WITHIN THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. 


***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Hazardous Weather Outlook 4/24/2011

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
234 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELTA. HIGH PROFILES
VEHICLES TRAVELING IN EASTERLY AND WESTERLY DIRECTIONS ARE URGED TO
SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL TIME PERIOD OF IMPACT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ALL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE DELTA. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OR A PORTION
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Storms Monday night through Wednesday 4/25-27/2011

Two rounds of severe weather are expected for early next week, beginning Monday night and lasting through Wednesday.

Areas northwest of the Natchez Trace, especially the ARKLAMISS Delta Areas will be impacted by the first round Monday night and early Tuesday.  Heavy rain, damaging straight line winds and large hail, along with a tornado are always possible with spring storms.

The second round of storms will start late Tuesday night and into Wednesday, and will affect the area again, with more significant weather expected.  This second round will have a higher risk of tornadoes as well.

The current Hazardous Weather Outlook is posted below, as well as an animated graphic.  We'll update this information as more complete data is published.

Let me take this opportunity to thank you for your interest, support, and positive feedback for this website.  I hope you have a wonderful Easter weekend with friends and family.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
208 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL TIME PERIOD OF IMPACT LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER A BREAK ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS POINT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION**

Thursday, April 21, 2011

On the radio...

When we think of amateur (or HAM) radio, images of guys huddled in a corner with a Morse Code key on the desk, tapping out messages to far flung corners of the world as a series of dots and dashes.  Well, that may well have been the original form of text messaging, and it is still used as one of many modes that amateur operators use to communicate.

If you'd been listening around on a scanner in the Mississippi Delta tonight around 145.550 MHz, you would have heard some pretty strange sounds, far different the staccato cadence of Morse Code.  You would have heard the sound of a Narrow Band Emergency Messaging System being tested.  Sounding somewhat like a FAX machine, the data being carried over the airwaves was the Hazardous Weather Outlook you can read in the post right below this one, along with a host of other messages.

While we "do" amateur radio for fun, part of our FCC license privilege requires that we possess the ability to send and receive emergency messages to support the communities we live in.  Whether that message is transmitted over twenty or two-hundred miles, it is important that the message be accurate. 

Digital modes of communicating far supersede the accuracy of simple voice.  We can encode the data stream in such a way that the receiving station can do a quality-check to make sure the data "makes sense" and is therefore accurate.  Not only for accuracy's sake, but often times we can transmit a message much more quickly. 

Practice makes perfect....so if you happen to hear some really strange sounds on the air, know that we're just trying to perfect our art and get the message through.

Early Look at Next Week

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
304 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WILL BEGIN LATE
MONDAY AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME...A COUPLE
EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR. EVERYONE SHOULD CHECK THE
LATEST FORECAST AND OUTLOOKS CONCERNING THIS EXTENDED SEVERE WEATHER
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
 ***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

A Historical Note...

 View of Greenville, MS, nine days after the beginning of the 1927 Mississippi River Flood.  Photo from MS Dept of Archives & History Digital Archives
"Levee broke at ferry landing Mounds, Mississippi eight a.m.  Crevasse will overflow the entire Mississippi Delta." ~ those were the dreadful words wired from Army district engineer Major John Lee to General Edgar Jadwin, head of the Army Corps of Engineers, 84 years ago today.  That telegram announced the beginning of the Great Flood of 1927.

While true statistics may never be known, The National Safety Council estimated deaths in the Yazoo-Mississippi Delta from the 1927 flood to be near 1,000 people.  185,495 people were directly affected in Mississippi, from Rosedale to Greenwood to Yazoo City and south to Vicksburg.  Almost 42,000 homes were flooded, 22,000 buildings destroyed, and another 62,000 were damaged.

The calamity's genesis was months prior, in the fall of 1926, with torrential recurrent rains falling over the northern Mississippi Valley.  Snowfall that gathered over the winter began to melt with the advance of Spring in 1927, which also brought more rain to the southern Mississippi Valley.  The water was gathering.

The Mounds Landing levee failure, near Scott, MS, was the first of almost 150 levee failures along the Mississippi River.  Geographic scars of the deluge at Mounds Landing are still - although barely - visible.  3000 feet of levee failed, releasing a flow of water estimated to have been twice that of Niagara Falls.  Ultimately, 27,000 square miles of Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas were inundated.  In Mississippi, all of Washington, Sharkey, Humphreys, and Issaquena counties were flooded, along with parts of Bolivar, Sunflower, Leflore, Yazoo, and Warren counties.  At the flood's height, the Mississippi River spread to 60 miles wide (5 to 10 times wider than its current levee boundaries).

Unlike most other natural disasters that dispel most of their energy in one major blow, the Mississippi River never stops.  The flood of 1927 did not "happen" in the span of a day or two.  Flood waters began to recede months later.

As we contemplate our participation in the upcoming New Madrid hazard zone National Level Exercise, we should pause to look to our own history of disasters.  From one disaster to another, we have rebuilt bigger, higher, and better, just as the river engineers did before and after 1927.  Survivors of Mississippi's benchmark hurricane, Camille, fell victim to their own feelings of disaster-resistance 36 years later.  And much like the levee builders did in the early 20th century, much faith was placed in human ingenuity's attempts to control Nature when engineers rebuilt taller and stronger levees around New Orleans after Hurricane Betsy in 1965.  We easily recall human saga that resulted from days of flooding following Hurricane Katrina in 2005.  Yet, has the fog of eight decades blinded us to the months of flooding that occurred in our own Delta area?

The area of Mississippi affected in 1927 still has about the same population, with estimates ranging from 160,000 to 180,000, occupying some 60,000 housing units.  Although the population hasn't changed much in nearly ninety years, a multitude of social aspects have.  On the positive side, our population is more well informed, information travels faster and is more readily available, and we are more mobile.  Armed with information and mobility, we are able to evacuate more easily.  That mobility is a two-edged sword, though; we will want to come home more quickly.  On the negative side, our dependence has grown.

The movement and needs of a great mass of population present challenges to those who graciously open their cities to us; Mississippi isn't known as the Hospitality State by accident.  We bring with us the maladies of a society that is far less prepared, and far less resilient.  While not longing for the severe living conditions of the Delta in the 1920's, our people today are more dependent on others for their health and welfare than were our not-so-distant ancestors.  An organized food industry has turned the family garden plot into basketball courts, swimming pools, and playgrounds; our daily sustenance arrives via truck.  Advanced healthcare has given us the ability to live longer with a host of diseases that once claimed the lives of the young; but it quickly abandons us within the grasp of Death when disaster separates us from our medicine men.  Where we once were dependent largely upon ourselves, have we have now laid that resilience upon the alter of convenience in our current age?

We are accustomed to the pace of our modern life.  Stresses of meeting work, social, and family schedules and demands take their toll on our overall well-being.  That same rapid pace that slowly wears us down also engrains in us a desire to seek quick resolution to disaster's obsticals.  We will want our disaster-disrupted lives to be rapidly returned to normal, with no convenience left out.

History will be repeated.  The Mississippi Delta will flood again, in spite of our grand efforts to prevent it from ever happening again.  Taller, stronger levees perform their seasonal dance with the Father of Waters, which constrained by those same levees is now allowed to move more quickly and carry more water.  Our own Gulf Coast is rebuilding to match the height of Katrina's storm surge, repeating the phrase heard after Camille that it won't be that bad again.  The New Madrid fault will slip beneath the Mid-South, unleashing a calamity that will rival all of the great disasters of our time.

Are we really that well prepared?  Or are we that forgetful?

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

General Overnight Outlook for 4/20-21/2011

  • A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for the area until 2:00 AM 4/21/2011
  • A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the area until 6:00 AM 4/21/2011

Convection continues across north and central portions of Mississippi, and additional development is expected across western portions of the area overnight.  The primary risks associated with overnight development are large (up to golfball) hail, damaging winds up to 60mph, and tornadoes cannot be ruled out.  Flash flooding is also a concern as storms train over the same areas with hourly rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible.  Localized rainfall amounts of 5 to 6 inches have been radar estimated tonight, and an additional 2 to 4 inches is possible.

Severity of storms will decrease through the morning hours Thursday as overall intensity wanes.  However, training of thunderstorms will compound the risk of flooding through Thursday morning.  

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 2:00AM 4/21/2011

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 173
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   745 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          PARTS OF WESTERN ALABAMA
          PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
          SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
          PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
   UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF
   GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES EAST OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA. 
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 168...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   NUMBER 169. WATCH NUMBER 168 169 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 745
   PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 170...WW 171...
   
   DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO
   REDEVELOP VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NRN MS ESEWD INTO
   CENTRAL AL. WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG AND 40KT OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT...PARTICULARLY
   ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 27020.


***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Updated Hazardous Weather Outlook - 4:30pm 4/20/2011

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
427 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE PRIMARY RISKS ARE LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. A FEW
TORNADOES CAN BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY FOR EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR...THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. MANY AREAS ALONG A
LINE FROM HOLLANDALE TO DURANT TO MACON HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HEAVY DOWNPOURS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED ROAD
CLOSURES IN A FEW COMMUNITIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.




***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Hazardous Weather Outlook 1:50PM 4/20/2011

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
150 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE PRIMARY RISKS ARE LARGE HAIL TO 
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. WHILE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE 
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR...THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF 
INTERSTATE 20.

IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY. MANY AREAS ALONG A LINE FROM
HOLLANDALE TO DURANT TO MACON HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES. HEAVY DOWNPOURS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED ROAD CLOSURES IN A FEW
COMMUNITIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH 
ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER 
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. 


***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8:00PM 4/20/2011

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 168
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   105 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
          NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
          MISSISSIPPI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
   800 PM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH OF
   COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF MONTICELLO ARKANSAS. 
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
   AFTERNOON ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND PRECEDING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES.  MODIFICATION OF 12Z JAN SOUNDING FOR CURRENT WARM
   SECTOR CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY STRONGLY
   UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 3000 J/KG.  WHEN COUPLED WITH THE
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP WLY
   SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL AND ORGANIZED
   MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 27030.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Special Weather Statement - 4/20/2011 12:50pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1244 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

MSZ019-025>028-201810-
SUNFLOWER MS-GRENADA MS-LEFLORE MS-CARROLL MS-MONTGOMERY MS-
1244 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

...RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES...

A BAND OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 
MILES WEST OF MONEY TO WINONA AT 1242 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
OR LARGER THROUGH 200 PM. 

VERY HEAVY RAINS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE 
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN CARROLL...LEFLORE...SOUTHERN GRENADA
AND SOUTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

 




***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Flash Flood Watch until 6:00AM 4/21/2011

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
922 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN 
  MISSISSIPPI.

* THROUGH 6 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

* A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
  HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. RAINFALL
  TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
  WATCH AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE
  THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS.

* URBAN AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING FROM
  HEAVY RAINS. IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY...DO NOT DRIVE INTO THE
  WATER. FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.


***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Hazardous Weather Outlook - April 20, 2011

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
526 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NORTH
OF INTERSTATE TWENTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. THE MAIN RISKS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN SOME AFFECTED AREAS COULD
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ISSUES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RISK OF SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
TWENTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN RISK WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CONCERN OF TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR IN
MISSISSIPPI WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. IN THESE LATTER AREAS TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY
EARLY THURSDAY MAY REACH OR EXCEED 2 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. 


***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***