The K5JAW Blog: August 2011

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Hurricane Irene, Aug 27, 10am Update

While downgraded to a Category 1 storm, Hurricane Irene still presents a threat to the Northeast as she moves ashore. Updated graphics reflecting the 10am forecast update are below.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Friday, August 26, 2011

Hurricane Irene, Aug 26, 4:00pm Update

Hurricane Irene appears to have weakened slightly, but is still a dangerous storm for the East Coast. Hurricane Warnings are in effect from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Currently a Category 2 storm, Irene is forecast to weaken to a Category 1 storm on Saturday. However, due to the projected track, areas in the path will be subjected to strong winds and rain for a number of hours.

As with previous posts, the first image depicts the current wind fields and error cone. The second represents the projected wind fields along the current forecast track.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Hurricane Irene, Aug 25 PM Update

The first image depicts the error cone as of the National Hurricane Center's 7pm update on August 25. The second depicts the wind field distribution for the same forecast. This does not bode well for the Northeast, as they do not see hurricanes very often.

There will not be a morning update on August 26 on this website, as I will be away from my computer. I will update as soon as I can.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Hurricane Irene Update, Aug 25, 2011

This morning's forecast has Irene moving back to the west, placing more of the Carolinas in the threatened area than yesterday.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Edisto Beach, SC to Surf City, NC.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Surf City, NC to the North Carolina - Virginia border,

Hurricane Irene is currently a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.

This graphic depicts the error cone - the area that could be affected. The forecast track (center line) is the best estimate, but any area inside the error cone should be considered at risk.

This graphic depicts the wind field distribution along the forecast track. The blue envelope represents winds greater than 39 mph (tropical storm force). The yellow envelope represents winds greater than 58 mph. The red envelope represents wind speeds greater than 75 mph (hurricane force).

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Hurricane Irene Update

Here's the latest forecast update for Hurricane Irene.

Essentially, each new advisory pushes Irene a little more east. Originally aimed for Florida, the forecast moved to Georgia, the Carolinas, to the Potomac Region, and now on to the Northeast states. This improves the situation for the southeastern states, as the wind fields will stay well off the coastal areas. However, it does not bode well for the areas from North Carolina's Outer Banks, to Long Island to Cape Cod. Such is the difficulty in weather forecasting.

The real issue, however, isn't the accuracy of a forecast. The issue is the degree of preparedness in each of the communities that are potentially in harm's way. For now, I'll let this blog entry stand for the information intended, a forecast update. We'll discuss family and neighborhood preparedness in a future post.

Monday, August 22, 2011

Caribbean amateur radio frequencies

Copied from the Caribbean Emergency and Weather Net website:

Regional Emergency/Hurricane Nets

Frequency (KHz)            Net
1984.0     Virgin Islands (VI, Puerto Rico, Lesser Antilles)
3710.0     Puerto Rico
3815.0     Caribbean Emergency and Weather (1030 & 2230), Inter-island (continuous watch)
3935.0     Belize
3950.0     Hurricane Watch (Amateur-to-National Hurricane Center) (altn)
7055.0     El Grupo Seguimiento de Huracanes (Spanish)
7060.0     Mexican (emergency and health & welfare) (Spanish)
7090.0     Central America Emergency
7110.0     Cuba Emergency (day)
7162.0     Caribbean Emergency and Weather Inter-island 40-meter (continuous watch)
7250.0     Belize
7268.0     Waterway
14185.0     Caribbean Emergency
14222.0     Health & Welfare
14245.0     Health & Welfare
14268.0     Amateur Radio Readiness Group
14275.0     International Amateur Radio
14283.0     Caribus (health & welfare)
14300.0     Intercontinental Traffic Maritime Mobile Service
14303.0     International Assistance & Traffic
14313.0     Intercontinental Traffic (altn) Maritime Mobile Service (altn)
14316.0     Health & Welfare
14320.0     Health & Welfare
14325.0     USB Hurricane Watch (Amateur-to-National Hurricane Center)
14340.0     Manana (1900)
21310.0     Health & Welfare (Spanish)
21390.0     Inter-Americas (health & welfare)
28450.0     Health & Welfare (Spanish)

Hurricane Irene

Below you will find a screen capture of the latest forecast track for Hurricane Irene. Each new advisory has moved the forecast track further east, to its current location off the Florida coast Thursday, and into South Carolina on Saturday as a Category 3 storm. Most forecast models agree on the east-coast scenario, but at least one model suggests the storm could affect the west coast of Florida, and thus the eastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico.

A comprehensive source for hurricane forecasts, models, advisories and discussions can be found at www.crownweather.com. The current storm will have a link near the top of the left-hand column on the page.

The National Hurricane Center's website is www.nhc.noaa.gov

Of interest to amateur radio operators, information about the National Hurricane Center's amateur radio station can be found at www.wx4nhc.com, and the Hurricane Watch Net at www.hwn.org, or on the dial at 14.325 MHz. If needed, the Salvation Army Team Emergency Radio Network (SATERN) would be activated on 14.265 MHz.

The Mississippi ARRL Section Emergency Operations Plan can be found at www.arrlmiss.org. It contains important information on emergency communications in Mississippi, and agreements we have with surrounding states in the ARRL Delta Division.

Friday, August 19, 2011

Heat Advisory through Saturday, August 20

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
427 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT SATURDAY...

THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CDT SATURDAY.

* PEAK HEAT INDICES: 103 TO 108 DEGREES.

* TIMING: BETWEEN 11 AM AND 6 PM.

* IMPACTS: THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WILL BE GREATLY
  ENHANCED. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE
  OPPRESSIVE HEAT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

EACH YEAR...A NUMBER OF FATALITIES OCCUR NATIONWIDE DUE TO
CHILDREN ACCIDENTALLY BEING LEFT IN VEHICLES DURING THE SUMMER
MONTHS. IN THE PAST DOZEN YEARS...450 CHILDREN HAVE DIED DUE TO
HYPERTHERMIA AFTER BEING LEFT IN OR GAINING ACCESS TO CARS. NEVER
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN A VEHICLE NOT EVEN FOR A
MINUTE. REMEMBER...BEAT THE HEAT...CHECK THE BACKSEAT.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE.  WHEN
POSSIBLE... RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING.  KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE.  WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS.

ANYONE OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED
LOCATION.   HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 9 1 1.

Saturday, August 13, 2011

Hazardous Weather Outlook - August 13, 2011

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
632 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
141145-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
632 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER-SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MULTIPLE PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS DELTA AS INSTABILITY WILL
INTERACT WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH
COULD BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AS
COOL FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEYOND SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Hazardous Weather Outlook - August 10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
941 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT NORTH OF A LINE FROM DELHI LOUISIANA...TO HAZLEHURST...TO QUITMAN.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN RISK WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...BUT STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

IN ADDITION...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS
TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK OVER 100
DEGREES. AN OFFICIAL HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 49 CORRIDOR THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AS AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY.
THE COMPARATIVE RISK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGHEST ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR IN MISSISSIPPI WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
CONCERN AS WELL.

A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HELPING TO SET OFF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS AS THIS SYSTEM SETTLES NEAR THE GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH AND PROVIDES WIDESPREAD RELIEF.
DAYTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES AT TIMES
AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY NEEDED FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Hazardous Weather Outlook, August 9, 2011

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
510 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

MSZ019-025>033-036>039-044>046-050>052-057-058-101015-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-
510 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALONG AND NORTH OF AN
EUDORA ARKANSAS...TO JACKSON...TO QUITMAN MISSISSIPPI LINE. THE MAIN
RISK WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS...AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER...WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY...DUE TO A
TURBULENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PERSISTING. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO
60 MPH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR EXPERIENCING STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM CROSSETT ARKANSAS...TO
JACKSON... TO MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND HELPING SET
OFF ADDITIONAL STORMS. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES
AT TIMES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED NOW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

Monday, August 8, 2011

Hazardous Weather Outlook thru Thursday, August 11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
252 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND EAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF AN EUDORA ARKANSAS...TO JACKSON...TO QUITMAN MISSISSIPPI
LINE. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR IN MISSISSIPPI. A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN THE STORMS
FIRING UP IN AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.

OTHERWISE...THE HEAT ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WILL BE EXPIRING
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY...DUE TO A TURBULENT
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL HELP SET OFF THE STORMS. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR EXPERIENCING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM CROSSETT ARKANSAS...TO JACKSON...
TO MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BE DIVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND TO HELP SET OFF ADDITIONAL STORMS...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR STRONG STORMS AS WELL.

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