NWS Confirms Bolivar Co. Tornado

The National Weather Service in Jackson, MS, confirmed an EF-1 tornado as causing damage seen Sunday night, Sept. 25, 2011 along the northern side of Cleveland..  Additionally, an EF-0 tornado was confirmed based on reliable storm spotter sightings, and radar data.  Here's the info regarding the Cleveland tornado. (original at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=2011_09_25_svr_bolivar_sunflower)

Rating: EF-1 (click here for EF scale)
Estimated Maximum Winds: 100 mph
Casualties: Zero
Damage path: 11 miles
Maximum Path Width: 800 yards
Approximate Start Point/Time: 6mi NW of Cleveland, 8:04pm
Approximate End Point/Time: 5mi ESE of Cleveland, 8:22pm

The tornado started out producing a relatively narrow path of tree damage along Township Road. It moved southeast through the Stanton subdivision, heavily damaging four trailer homes and caused minor to moderate damage to several other homes and outbuildings. It continued to move southeast causing tree damage, and widened as it moved into the northwest side of the city of Cleveland. As the tornado moved through the north side of Cleveland, it snapped and uprooted numerous trees, blew the signs out of several restaurants and stores, blew the doors out of the automotive area of a department store, and blew out a wall and a large part of a roof of another commercial building. Several homes suffered shingle damage and powerlines were downed. The tornado then turned more eastward, continuing to cause tree damage as it moved along and just north of State Highway 8 east of Cleveland. Additional powerlines were downed and a few more homes suffered minor roof damage due to wind or branches falling on them. As the tornado crossed into Sunflower County it moved more southeast again. It snapped several wooden powerpoles along and just south of Highway 8 along Mallette-Jones Road, along with destroying a greenhouse type structure and causing some roof damage to a frame home. The tornado continued to cause tree damage in a relatively narrow path as it crossed Walker Road, and then dissipated before reaching Lusk Road.

These images from the Jackson, MS doppler radar show a tornadic thunderstorm at 8:15pm just to the east of Cleveland. The image on the left shows 0.5° base reflectivity data, and the image on the right shows 0.5° storm relative velocity data. Click on the thumbnail below for a higher resolution image.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Hazardous Weather Outlook, Sept 26, 2011

There's a sneak-peek at this weekend's forecast, following the statement & graphic about storms and rain today.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
449 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING QUARTER SIZED HAIL...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20. A STALLED FRONT WILL HELP FOCUS NEW STORMS LATER
TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AND POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA THAT WILL POSE A
HEAVY RAIN RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Updated Hazardous Weather Outlook, 9/25/2011 5:45pm

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF BOTH NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

...TORNADO WATCH 855 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS THRU
10PM TONIGHT...

IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...ASHLEY AND CHICOT COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...BOLIVAR...SUNFLOWER...LEFLORE...HUMPHREYS
AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

.OVERVIEW...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELTA REGION
TOWARDS GRENADA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
IN ADDITION...A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE DELTA
REGION BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10 PM AS THE LINE PASSES. PLEASE SEE UPDATED
GRAPHICAST AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN FOR A MAP OF RISK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. 

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Hazardous Weather Outlook, Sept 25, 2011

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
553 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>029-032-034>037-040>042-
261100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CHOCTAW-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
553 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...A FEW TORNADOES
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE DELTA BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM AS THE LINE PASSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. HAIL
UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE A CONCERN...AS WELL AS THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Hazardous Weather Outlook for Sept 24-25, 2011

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
537 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-034-251045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-
537 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Updated Hazardous Outlook, 9/14/11 5:00pm

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
234 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM AROUND 5PM UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE
PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HEATING HAS HELPED TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
TO HELP STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORM ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Hazardous Weather Outlook 9/14/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
428 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE TO HELP STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

Tropical Storm Nate, 7:30pm 9/7/11

Newly-formed Tropical Storm Nate, in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, looks like it will head into Mexico in the next few days.  However, there are a few models that bring it into the Northern Gulf, anywhere from Louisiana to Florida.  Therefore, Nate bears watching.  Here's the lastest info from the National Hurricane Center, and some graphics on down below, including official forecast tracks and computer model results.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011
700 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011

...NATE ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 92.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST.  NATE IS
CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THE CITY OF
CAMPECHE RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...56 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH...75 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...AND COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL... NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.

NHC Atlantic Outlook

NHC Atlantic Outlook: NHC Atlantic Outlook





ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE

KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.



1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE

FORMING ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER

TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR

WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90

PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



2. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO

IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT ANY

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW. AN AIR FORCE

PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY...IF

NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



3. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER

THESE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT

FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW

CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.



$

FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN






***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Flash Flood Watch: 9/4/11 7PM to 9/5/11 7PM

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
905 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...TROPICAL STORM LEE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO MUCH OF
THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...

MSZ026>033-035>039-041015-
/O.EXB.KJAN.FF.A.0015.110905T0000Z-110906T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRENADA...VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...
CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON...WEST POINT...
COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...STARKVILLE...BELZONI...ISOLA...
DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...KOSCIUSKO...
LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE
905 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
  MISSISSIPPI.

* FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* TROPICAL STORM LEE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
  LOUISIANA THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW...AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTH
  MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM
  MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN
  BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH LABOR DAY...WITH
  TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
  WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT IS LIKELY THAT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE IN
  EFFECT FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME AND YOU SHOULD BE READY TO
  RELOCATE TO HIGHER GROUNDS UNTIL FLOODING ENDS.

* TROPICAL SYSTEMS LIKE LEE ARE NOTORIOUS FOR PRODUCING INLAND 
  FLOODING WHERE FLOODING MAY NEVER HAVE OCCURRED PREVIOUSLY SO 
  BE EXTRA VIGILANT AS THIS STORM PASSES DURING THE NEXT FEW 
  DAYS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Tropical Storm Lee, Noon 9/3/11

Tropical Storm Lee is making landfall in south-central Louisiana this morning, and dousing that area and South Mississippi with heavy rains.  The latest graphics on Tropical Storm Lee are posted below.

National Hurricane Center forecast track map:

Wind forecast map:

Three-day rainfall total estimate, from Saturday through Tuesday:

Local rainfall estimates:

TS Lee - Hurrevac map 9pm 9/2/11

This screen capture comes from Hurrevac, a hurricane decision support software we use.  Hurrevac includes a host of data that allows emergency managers to make well-informed evacuation decisions and to explore alternative scenarios on storms.  The attached image reflects the latest forecast for Tropical Storm Lee, and it's anticipated track.  Click the image for a larger view.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

TS Lee Update, 4:00pm 9/2/11

Tropical Storm Lee promises to soak southern Mississippi and Louisiana as it comes ashore this weekend.  Lee will make a lazy approach to the Louisiana coastline late Saturday, then move east and northeast through southern Mississippi, dumping large volumes of rain along the way.  Sustained winds could topple trees in rain-soaked areas. 

This graphic shows rainfall estimates over the next three days.

Here is the latest official forecast track, followed by a composite map showing track predictions from various computer models.

Here is the 4:00pm 9/2/11 National Hurricane Center Public Advisory

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...TROPICAL STORM LEE DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA COAST...SQUALLS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING
INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 91.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. LEE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW AND
POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

REPORTS FROM OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45
MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 60 MPH WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED ON AN OIL RIG LOCATED ABOUT 65
MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT AN ALTITUDE A FEW
HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY
OIL RIGS IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.  THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.  ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE WARNING AREA OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WITHIN THESE AREAS.  SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.  

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Potential Rain Impacts from Tropical Storm Lee

The image below depicts possible rainfall amounts for Mississippi, as Tropical Depression #13 moves inland over the weekend.  Please note, these are estimates, and may be revised in the coming days.

Additionally, sustained winds can be expected as the storm passes the area.  Depending on the location, sustained winds in excess of 20-30 mph may be seen over the weekend and into early next week.  These sustained winds, coupled with ground saturation from heavy rainfalls, could topple trees and power-lines.

The key message: don't become complacent, just because TD #13 appears, for now, to be a "small" storm.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Tropical Depression #13, 10:00am 9/2/11

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.
A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.  WINDS
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL RIGS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY
OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1005
MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.  THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART 

-------------------------------------------------------------------- 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND AN EARLIER ASCAT
OVERPASS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS A ELONGATED
CENTER OF CIRCULATION...WITH THE ELONGATION CURRENTLY FROM
EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH A STRONG BURST HAS RECENTLY
FORMED NEAR THE EAST-NORTHEASTERN END OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON THE ASCAT OVERPASS AND REPORTS
FROM OIL RIGS IN THE NORTHERN GULF.  WHILE THERE IS GOOD OUTFLOW
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 315/2.  THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS EVOLUTION
SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS ENOUGH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM
TO KEEP THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON
THE INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT REFORMATIONS OF THE CENTER COULD CAUSE ERRATIC MOTION
AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

THE CURRENT INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...RESULTING IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS THAT...AT
BEST...WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THIS
INTERACTION...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM...SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SLOW.  THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES
BETWEEN THE STRONGER SHIPS AND WEAKER LGEM MODELS.
 
THE LARGE SIZE AND SLOW MOTION OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Tropical Depression #13, 9/1/11 9:00pm

Tropical Depression #13 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, south of Louisiana, and is expected to generally move north-northeast over the next few days, bringing heavy rain to South Louisiana and South Mississippi.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama state line.

--------------------------------------------------------------------- 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011
700 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011
 
SATELLITE...SURFACE...AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS
ACQUIRED A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT IS DEFINED ENOUGH TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL REGION
STILL CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS
LARGE ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
 
SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE THE INITIAL MOTION
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  IN FACT...THE CENTER COULD REFORM WITHIN THE
LARGE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.   THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE NHC TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0000Z 26.6N  91.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 27.5N  92.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 28.2N  92.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 28.7N  92.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 29.3N  92.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 30.1N  92.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  05/1800Z 31.1N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  06/1800Z 32.0N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011
700 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 91.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO
SABINE PASS TEXAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. 
A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
  
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA 

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

Preparedness: Get a Disaster Preparedness Kit

You may need to survive on your own after an emergency. This means having your own food, water, and other supplies in sufficient quantity to last for at least three days. Local officials and relief workers will be on the scene after a disaster, but they cannot reach everyone immediately. You could get help in hours, or it might take days. In addition, basic services such as electricity, gas, water, sewage treatment, and telephones may be cut off for days, or even a week or longer. 

Basic Items for Disaster Preparedness Kit:

• Water, one gallon of water per person per day for at least three days, for drinking and sanitation
• Food, at least a three-day supply of non-perishable food
• Battery-powered or hand crank radio and a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert and extra batteries for both
• Flashlight and extra batteries
• First aid kit
• Whistle to signal for help
• Dust mask, to help filter contaminated air and plastic sheeting and duct tape to shelter-in-place
• Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties for personal sanitation
• Wrench or pliers to turn off utilities
• Can opener for food (if kit contains canned food)
• Local maps
• Cell phone with chargers, inverter or solar charger 

Additional items you may wish to include:

• Prescription medications and glasses
• Infant formula and diapers
• Pet food and extra water for your pet
• Cash or traveler's checks and change
• Important family documents such as copies of insurance policies, identification and bank account records in a waterproof, portable container. You can use the Emergency Financial First Aid Kit (EFFAK) - PDF, 277Kb) developed by Operation Hope, FEMA and Citizen Corps to help you organize your information.
• Emergency reference material such as a first aid book or information from www.ready.gov.
• Sleeping bag or warm blanket for each person. Consider additional bedding if you live in a cold-weather climate.
• Complete change of clothing including a long sleeved shirt, long pants and sturdy shoes. Consider additional clothing if you live in a cold-weather climate.
• Household chlorine bleach and medicine dropper – When diluted nine parts water to one part bleach, bleach can be used as a disinfectant. Or in an emergency, you can use it to treat water by using 16 drops of regular household liquid bleach per gallon of water. Do not use scented, color safe or bleaches with added cleaners.
• Fire Extinguisher
• Matches in a waterproof container
• Feminine supplies and personal hygiene items
• Mess kits, paper cups, plates and plastic utensils, paper towels
• Paper and pencil
• Books, games, puzzles or other activities for children

Tropical System in Gulf of Mexico

If you're planning a Labor Day weekend on the Gulf Coast, you may want to stay informed about a developing tropical system that could affect your plans.

Currently called "Invest 93L", the area of disturbed weather has the potential to organize into a tropical storm sometime this weekend.  Today, shearing is preventing the storm from getting more organized, but conditions are expected to improve late today and tomorrow to support tropical storm development.    Since it's still disorganized, any attempt at forecasting a track is simply a best-guess situation.  However, I've attached the current track models below.

Please stay up to date as we go into the weekend.  This could end up being a rain event, or could become a hurricane in the Gulf.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1065 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS MAINLY ON ITS EAST SIDE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE LATER TODAY...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  INTERESTS
ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

2. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH
OF BERMUDA.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KATIA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 45.9W AT 01/0900 UTC OR 
ABOUT ABOUT 925 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT 17 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE 
READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 
14N-16N BETWEEN 44W-49W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
EXTENDS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 42W-49W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 
27N89W TO S MEXICO AT 16N92W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO AND 
GUATEMALA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 91W-96W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE E GULF OF 
MEXICO...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-29N 
BETWEEN 83W-89W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE 
CONDUCIVE LATER TODAY...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH 
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE 
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 
THIS DISTURBANCE.


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA/PAW

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***