Currently called "Invest 93L", the area of disturbed weather has the potential to organize into a tropical storm sometime this weekend. Today, shearing is preventing the storm from getting more organized, but conditions are expected to improve late today and tomorrow to support tropical storm development. Since it's still disorganized, any attempt at forecasting a track is simply a best-guess situation. However, I've attached the current track models below.
Please stay up to date as we go into the weekend. This could end up being a rain event, or could become a hurricane in the Gulf.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1065 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY ON ITS EAST SIDE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE LATER TODAY...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. 2. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE KATIA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 45.9W AT 01/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 925 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT 17
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 44W-49W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 42W-49W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT
27N89W TO S MEXICO AT 16N92W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 91W-96W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-29N
BETWEEN 83W-89W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE LATER TODAY...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
FORMOSA/PAW
***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***
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