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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY...IF
NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER
THESE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$
FORECASTER AVILA
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