Watches, Warnings & Advisories for Sunflower Co.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

MS River Flooding Update May 3, 2011

First, everyone take a deep breath.

The river stage forecasts have not changed today.  They are as follows:

Arkansas City: 53.5' crest on 5/14/2011
Greenville: 64.5' crest on 5/15/2011
Vicksburg 57.5' crest on 5/18/2011

This forecast will exceed 1973 flood levels by 6 feet.  This forecast puts us 3.5 feet above the 100-year flood on the Mississippi River.  The 100-year flood on the Mississippi River is 61 feet at Greenville, and 54 feet at Vicksburg.

The Mississippi River Levee road will be closed starting Saturday night at midnight.  Only Levee Board employees, Corps of Engineers members, Highway Inspectors, Game Wardens and Law Enforcement officers will be allowed on the levee.  Anyone else will be arrested.

There is a great deal of discussion on what may or may not actually happen.  I can tell you with a great degree of confidence (based on a lot of experience), don't take any statements of what will happen at face value.  Always approach them with a degree of skepticism.  Your best bet is to take all of the projections and find the average of all of them.  Even then, keep the worst-case-scenario in mind.

One school of thought, the worst-case-scenario, estimates the worst Yazoo River backwater could reach ground elevations of 107-109 feet above mean sea level.  The best-case scenario limits flooding to 94-96 feet above mean sea level.  That means, if you've got Mississippi Delta property below around 95 feet above sea level, you can expect water.  But, it does NOT rule out the possibility of flooding up to the 107-109 foot level.

New maps are being worked on that illustrate these various levels.  I'll try to post them whenever I can.

I want to encourage you to consider two major schools of thought on what to expect.  They are: 1) What is possible, and 2) What is most likely.

The possibilities include massive widespread flooding as was illustrated in the maps posted yesterday.  I personally don't expect to see that.  But it cannot be ruled out.

The second line of thinking...what is most likely...  Greenville, Greenwood, Indianola, Cleveland and other towns in the area can expect to see an influx of evacuees from the flooded areas.    Extra, temporary residents will create a greater demand on all aspects of infrastructure: commerce (hotels, shopping, food), utilities (water, power), and public services (healthcare, fire, ambulance, etc).

We would be prudent to begin planning now on how to best help these evacuees. 

I cannot stress enough, that this is a dynamic situation.  It is not like an approaching hurricane or thunderstorm that we can fairly accurately predict.  Final Mississippi River levels, levee integrity, future rainfall prior to and during the flood, land contouring over the past decades, road bed levels, and a host of other variables influence where water will finally end up.  Just remember this isn't the Delta's first dance with the Father of Waters, nor will it be the last.  None of us are invulnerable to flooding.  Take time now to consider the adequacy of your family's disaster plans.  And be willing to lend a hand to our neighbors that may be visiting for a while.


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