Severe Weather Risk for Sunday 2/10/13

It seems the chances for severe weather in the Delta area have increased for tomorrow.  While a widespread outbreak of significant storms isn't expected, the threat for severe thunderstorms exists, to include tornadoes and high winds.  I think the most significant issue will be heavy rainfall through the day Sunday, which brings the potential for flash flooding in some areas.  1 to 3 inches of rainfall are forecast, with locally higher amounts possible. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
503 AM CST SAT FEB 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST...CENTRAL AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AS A POTENT
WEATHER DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ENDING SOMETIME
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...TORNADOES AND HAIL. IN ADDITION...HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WILL POSE A FLASH FLOODING RISK...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF A NATCHEZ TO GRENADA LINE WHERE UP TO THREE INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE GULF
COAST EARLY MONDAY BRINGING A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND EVENTUAL RIVER FLOODING. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH SIX INCHES IN
A FEW AREAS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

The image below depicts the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of a given point.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***