Severe weather possible Tuesday, 11/22/2011

It looks like we'll have another opportunity for severe weather this week, Tuesday and Tuesday evening.  A cold front is expected to move through the region on Tuesday.  A line of severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this front as it moves into the Delta around mid-day.  The line should pass through the south-east portion of Mississippi around midnight Tuesday night.  Forecasters expect the air mass ahead of the front to be unstable enough to produce severe isolated storms ahead of the squall line.  These isolated thunderstorms and the later squall line could produce hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes.  With a moisture-rich air mass in place, locally heavy rains are also possible.

I'll have more information around mid-afternoon on Monday, and will keep this site updated.  As always, precise predictions this far in advance are almost impossible, but computer models have been in agreement since Friday on this potential for Tuesday.  Below you'll find today's Hazardous Weather Outlook as well as some graphics from the National Weather Service office in Jackson, as well as the Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma.

Remember, November is our "second season" for severe weather and tornadoes in Mississippi.  Please keep abreast of changing weather conditions by monitoring local media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
209 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND
TORNADOES. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TO
PRODUCE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER EPISODE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 

Below graphic is Day-3 (Tuesday) Probabilistic Outlook.  This depicts the probability of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point.

 

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***