Watches, Warnings & Advisories for Sunflower Co.

Monday, August 27, 2012

TS Isaac #10, 27 AUG 12 5:00pm

Little has changed with the 4:00pm update for Tropical Storm Isaac.  Mississippi can expect to see tropical storm force winds generally south of a Greenville - Meridian line.  In addition to sustained winds, heavy rainfall amounts could produce local flash flooding problems as well as flooding along rivers and streams that may last for several days.  Current projections indicate the Mississippi Delta could see over 6 inches of rainfall.  Graphics below depict the National Hurricane Center's current forecast, projected rainfall amounts, and the projected wind field distribution across south Mississippi.

The following is a report centered on Washington County, MS.  Neighboring counties can anticipate similar wind intensities and timing.

Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac
Monday, August 27, 2012 at 4 PM CDT
(Output from Hurrevac, based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory # 27)


Isaac is currently a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained
winds of 70 mph (60 kts), moving northwest at 12 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 981
mb. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the storm center.

Certain coastal locations are under Hurricane Warning, Hurricane Watch, Tropical Storm Warning, and
Tropical Storm Watch as illustrated in the map below. The geographic extents of these watches and
warnings are detailed in the advisory text at the end of this report.

Wind Analysis for Washington County, MS
(Based upon Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory #27)


Wind Probabilities
Jackson, MS, the closest reporting location, has within the 5-day forecast period of this advisory, a 4%
chance of at hurricane-force (64kt/74mph) winds, a 16% chance of at least strong tropical storm-force
(50kt/58mph) winds, and a 66% chance of at least tropical storm-force (34kt/39mph) winds.

Peak Wind*
Winds in Washington, MS are projected to peak at 34kt/39mph around 7:00 AM on Thursday, August 30,
2012

Wind Arrival and Duration*
Tropical storm-force winds (34kt/39mph) are forecast to begin in Washington, MS on Thursday, August
30, 2012 at 7:00 AM. Winds of this magnitude or higher are forecast to continue for 10 hours.
50kt/58mph winds are not forecast for Washington, MS.
64kt/74mph winds are not forecast for Washington, MS.

* These wind estimations are limited to the first 72 hours (3 days) following advisory issuance, and are
subject to considerable forecast uncertainty and generalization, especially if the storm is distant.
Maximum sustained winds (the highest surface wind maintained over a 1 minute period) are reported
here. Wind gusts and winds at higher elevations will be greater.



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