Watches, Warnings & Advisories for Sunflower Co.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

TS Isaac #12 28 AUG 12 10:00AM

Tropical Storm Isaac continues to slowly move northwestward toward the Gulf Coast, with landfall expected to occur at or near the mouth of the Mississippi River tonight.  This morning's update indicates that wind fields for the Mississippi Delta will not be as extensive as was thought yesterday.  Rainfall estimates have also been reduced downward, with 3 to 5 inches possible across the Delta in the next 5 days.

Amateur Radio:
The Delta Division EMCOMM Net will activate at Noon, 1200hrs Central Time, on a 24-hour basis, on 7.275 MHz (day) and 3.890 MHz (night).  The shift between frequencies will be at the discretion of the Net Control Station.  This net will primarily handle tactical traffic.  KM5EMA, the station at the Mississippi State Emergency Operations Center, will be on frequency.

The Mississippi Emergency Net will activate at Noon, 1200hrs Central Time, on Tuesday, August 28.  Daily operation will begin at 0600hrs and end at 2200hrs or later if activity warrants.  Frequencies will be 7.238 MHz (day) and 3.862 (night), and Net Control will determine when to shift frequencies.  This net will handle Health-and-Welfare traffic and other Isaac-related issues.  A moratorium on inbound H/W traffic may be declared if it is obviously impossible to deliver the traffic due to storm damage.

The following report is centered on Washington County, Mississippi.

Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac
Tuesday, August 28, 2012 at 10 AM CDT
(Output from Hurrevac, based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory # 30)


Isaac is currently a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained
winds of 70 mph (60 kts), moving northwest at 10 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976
mb. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the storm center.

Wind Analysis for Washington, MS
(Based upon Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory #30)


Wind Probabilities
Jackson, MS, the closest reporting location, has within the 5-day forecast period of this advisory, a 1%
chance of at hurricane-force (64kt/74mph) winds, a 8% chance of at least strong tropical storm-force
(50kt/58mph) winds, and a 55% chance of at least tropical storm-force (34kt/39mph) winds.

Peak Wind*
Winds in Washington, MS are projected to peak at 34kt/39mph around 6:00 AM on Thursday, August 30,
2012

Wind Arrival and Duration*
Tropical storm-force winds (34kt/39mph) are forecast to begin in Washington, MS on Thursday, August
30, 2012 at 6:00 AM. Winds of this magnitude or higher are forecast to continue for 5 hours.
50kt/58mph winds are not forecast for Washington, MS.
64kt/74mph winds are not forecast for Washington, MS.

* These wind estimations are limited to the first 72 hours (3 days) following advisory issuance, and are
subject to considerable forecast uncertainty and generalization, especially if the storm is distant.
Maximum sustained winds (the highest surface wind maintained over a 1 minute period) are reported
here. Wind gusts and winds at higher elevations will be greater.

Estimated Wind Field distribution based on Advisory #30

Estimated Rainfall for Tuesday, August 28, based on Advisory #30
Estimated Rainfall for Wednesday, August 29, based on Advisory #30
Estimated Rainfall for Thursday, August 30, based on Advisory #30

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