Watches, Warnings & Advisories for Sunflower Co.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

HZ WX Outlook, Forecast Discussion - 11:45 AM 4/26/2011

NOTE:  I will update this site again around 2:00 PM, following a conference call with the weather service.  In the meantime, this Area Forecast Discussion gives some insight to what we'll see later today and tonight.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1142 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TORNADOES...
POSSIBLY STRONG AND LONG TRACKED...VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

AN UNSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE SPRING IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN A RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
*********************************************************************
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1115 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT PROBABLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY...

.UPDATE...AFTER AN ACTIVE WEATHER MORNING...MORE STORMS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND ON WED. TO START OFF...THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE NW AND W. TEMPS WERE
ALSO ADJUSTED WARMER TO CATCH THE WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR A PERIOD BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP. BASICALLY...MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH 5-6 PM WITH ONLY THE FAR NW
AREAS HAVING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAINLY AFTER 4 PM.

AS FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING...OVERNIGHT AND ON WED. A
VERY COMPLEX AND POWERFUL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION. THE SEVERITY
OF THE EVENT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON STORM MODE (SUPERCELL VS LINEAR) AND
THE EVOLUTION OF STORM COMPLEXES. HOWEVER...BASED OFF THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY LONG LIVED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. IF THE MODE IS MORE LINEAR...THEN DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 60-80 MPH WINDS. HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE TIMING OF THIS IS EXTREMELY
TOUGH TO PINPOINT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
TIME WILL EXIST WHERE THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL
GENERALLY START FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AS WELL.
AS FOR LOCATION...DATA SUGGESTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS AT
THE GREATEST RISK...BUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH PORTIONS IF STORM EVOLUTION SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. MORE DETAILS
WILL BE OFFERED THIS AFTERNOON CONCERNING THIS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT.

UPDATED STORM PREDICTION CENTER GRAPHICS - Areas of Northwest Mississippi have now been added to the "High" risk area for severe thunderstorms today and tonight.   

Severe Thunderstorm Potential valid until 7:00 AM 4/27/2011
 Tornado Outlook valid until 7:00am 4/27/2011
 Wind Outlook valid until 7:00 AM 4/27/2011
 Hail Outlook valid until 7:00 AM 4/27/2011


***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***

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