Watches, Warnings & Advisories for Sunflower Co.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Updated Area Forecast Discussion - 5:30 PM 4/26/2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT CURRENTLY UNFOLDING...TIME FRAME
IS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK READY TO UNFOLD FROM THE 
ARKLATEX THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA INTO AL AND TN VALLEY TONIGHT 
INTO WED. THIS EVENT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 
24HRS THEN A SHIFT TO COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUICKLY RESPONDING AND 
RECOVERING FROM THE MORNING STORM COMPLEX. BASED OFF VAPOR 
IMAGERY...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED IN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. 
IT IS THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE MAIN DIGGING TROUGH...THAT IS 
CAUSING SURFACE PRESSURES TO LOWER ACROSS TX WHICH IS IN TURN ALLOWING 
PRESSURES TO FALL OVER OUR REGION. FORECAST MODELS SEEM TO BEING 
WELL WITH THE ABOVE FEATURES I MENTIONED AND SHOW THE RAPID RESPONSE 
TO THE WIND FIELDS AND RECOVERY OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TAKING THE VARIOUS 
MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HI-RES OUTPUT...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS 
APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE VARIOUS EMBEDDED WAVES FROM LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON...EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND THEN ON WED.

THE AREAS UNDER THE GREATEST RISK HAVE NOT CHANGED. LOCATIONS NORTH 
OF I-20 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE GREATEST RISK WITH AREAS ALONG AND S OF 
I-20 HAVING A MORE ISOLATED RISK. THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL HAVE TO 
COMPETE WITH LOW/MID LEVEL CAPPING AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT 
WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP EVEN IN THE FACE SUCH INTENSE 
FORCING. HOWEVER...IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY 
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH END SEVERE STORMS. THE NORTHERN HALF WILL LIKELY 
HAVE SOME CAP...BUT IT WON'T BE AS STRONG AND THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE 
AND ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS. THE REPETITIVE 
EXPECTATION OF STORMS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS 
THE NORTH WITH 3-6 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD 
ALSO OCCUR. DUE TO THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF THE FLASH FLOOD 
WATCH.

THE SEVERITY OF THIS EVENT WILL ULTIMATELY COME DOWN TO STORM MODE 
(SUPERCELL VS SQUALL LINE). AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS AS THE AREA WILL 
SEE A MIXTURE OF BOTH THROUGH THIS EVENT. WITH ANY SUPERCELL 
STORM...THERE WILL EXIST THE POSSIBILITY OF LONG TRACK STRONG 
TORNADOES....VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH. AS FOR ANY 
LINE SEGMENT...DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH 
HAIL AND TORNADOES ALSO A SUBSTANTIAL RISK. EITHER WAY AND WHICH 
EVER MODE OCCURS...THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TIMING...THERE IS NO SPECIFIC TIME...JUST A LARGE WINDOW OF 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N HALF FROM NOW THROUGH WED 
AFTERNOON. I WOULD SAY THAT THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL WAIT 
UNTIL AT LEAST MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING WED AFTERNOON. I DO FEEL 
CONFIDENT THAT THINGS WILL PUSH EAST AND EXIT THE AREA BY 7 PM WED.

IN ADDITION TO ALL THE SEVERE WEATHER...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT 
AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR ON WED AS 
THE AREA WARMS AND MIXES DOWN THE INTENSE WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. 
ADDITIONALLY...WHEN THE DRY LINE MOVES ACROSS THE W/NW 
AREAS...DEEPER MIXING WILL OCCUR AND HELP TO BRING DOWN WINDS OF 
40-50 MPH. FOR NOW...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR ALL OF THE AREA. 
PORTIONS OF THE W/NW MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING. THIS WILL BE 
LOOKED AT CLOSER IN LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATED AS NEEDED.

BEYOND 8 PM TOMORROW...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET WITH COOLER AND MORE 
SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NEXT REAL CHANCE AT PRECIP LOOKS TO 
WAIT UNTIL SUN OR MON.
 
 

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