Special Weather Statement - 3:00pm 4/26/2011

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE DELTA TONIGHT...
...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI 
WEDNESDAY...

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR 
STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO 
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OUTBREAK OF SEVERE 
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ARKLAMISS REGION...ESPECIALLY IN 
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME 
INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE 
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE INITIAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE DELTA 
TONIGHT...WHERE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. THIS RISK 
COULD SHIFT AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO COLUMBUS BY 
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE OVER THE DELTA TONIGHT. 
THEN...AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE 
REGION WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WITH THE MOST 
INTENSE SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...STRONG...LONG TRACKED 
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WIND 
GUSTS TO 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS 
CERTAIN. HOWEVER...IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...THEY WILL 
BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF SIGNIFICANT 
SEVERE WEATHER.

PEOPLE ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOVE TO SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR 
AREA OR THREATENING WEATHER IS OBSERVED.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
   
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS TO THE MO
BOOTHEEL/WESTERN KY/FAR SOUTHERN IL
   
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
VALID 261941Z - 262115Z
   
CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS FOR A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS
EASTERN AR INTO WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
OVER THE PAST HOUR...VISIBLE SATELLITE REFLECTS DEEPENING CUMULIFORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL AR INTO WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY...WITH INCIPIENT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY NOTED EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. WITH STRONG HEATING
/ALREADY NEAR 80F OR ABOVE/ OCCURRING ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...MODIFICATIONS TO A SPECIAL 18Z LITTLE ROCK OBSERVED RAOB
SUGGEST LITTLE CINH REMAINS. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASES LATER TODAY...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE
INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD
SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS EVENING /AS A LOW
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MARKEDLY INCREASE/...INCREASING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL NECESSITATE A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***