A lot of information on this post, so we'll start with the high points:
- Severe weather will affect the Mississippi Delta area today from around Noon through 6:00pm tonight
- Greatest risk of severe weather will be north of Interstate 20
- Damaging winds up to 75 MPH, and large (golfball size) hail are possible
- The risk of tornadoes also exists with individual storm cells
- Western Delta counties (Bolivar, Washington, Sunflower, Humphreys, Leflore) should see the weather between Noon and 3:00pm today
- Eastern Delta counties (Carroll, Holmes, Montgomery, Attala) will see there weather generally between 3:00pm and 6:00pm this evening.
- 1 to 2 inches of rain can be expected with this storm system. The higher amounts of rainfall are expected for Leflore, Carroll, Montgomery, and Holmes counties.
- A Wind Advisory is in effect until 4:00pm today. Sustained winds of 20-30 MPH, with gusts of 40-45 MPH are possible, separate from storm-related winds.
These storms will move through the area very rapidly. You are strongly encouraged to maintain a constant awareness of changing weather conditions. Monitor local broadcast media and NOAA Weather Radio for up-to-the-minute information and warnings.
The following statement is from the NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma:
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0405 AM CDT MON APR 04 2011 ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE NORTHERN ALABAMA NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST STATES. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED JET STREAM WINDS GREATER THAN 100 MPH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER-AIR STORM SYSTEM WITH THIS FEATURE PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IT SURGES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...EXPECT LOCATIONS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS...EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TO BE IMPACTED BY A FEW SEVERE STORMS. BY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MARKED INCREASE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES AS THEY ADVANCE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
The following statement is today's Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS Jackson, MS:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 555 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH... TORNADOES...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THESE STORMS TO OCCUR WILL BE FROM NOON TO 3PM. VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR AND A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE ARKLAMISS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A MORE ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES COULD BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME PONDING OF WATER. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES.
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