Watches, Warnings & Advisories for Sunflower Co.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Notes from Weather Conf. Call for April 14/15 storms

  • Severe storms look to be possible tonight, mainly late and into early morning Friday
  • More significant risk of severe weather will be from mid-morning Friday through early tomorrow evening across all of Mississippi
  • Concentrated heavy rainfall may cause issues along and north of the Highway 82 Corridor

A spring storm system is currently strenghtening in the Central Plains, and will be tracking eastward tomorrow.  Tonight, the main frontal boundary will remain well to our west.  However, before daybreak Friday, a warm front will pass northward through the area, touching off showers and thunderstorms between midnight and daybreak.  A risk of damaging winds and hail will be associated with these early storms.

The primary risk for tomrorow comes as the day progresses and the main cold front approaches from the west.  All modes of severe weather are possible from late morning through early evening for Mississippi counties.  While the entire area could see severe weather, the greatest risk appears to be generally along and east of the Interstate 55 corridor, betwen the Highway 82 and Interstate 20 cooridors.

Timing for this system is difficult, as discreet isolated supercell storms could develop well ahead of the main front.  Generally, western Delta counties should see storm development between 5am and Noon.  Central areas of the state, generall south of a Grenada to Vicksburg line, should see their weather between 11am and 3pm.  Areas to the far southeast, generally south of a Meridian to Hattiesburg line, should see storm development between 3pm and 8pm.  Please note that these times are general, and can change overnight.

While not an absolute prediction, atmospheric models for tomorrow are similar to the conditions of April 2010, that produced a number of strong tornadoes, including the long-track system that affected much of Central Mississippi, including Yazoo City. 

Precipitation amounts of generally one-half inch, to two inches are generally expected across the area.  Higher amounts could be possible with local storms.  Areas along Highway 82, especially in the central and eastern regions, could see rainfall amounts near the upper end of that expectation.

No comments:

Post a Comment