Severe Weather Tonight 1/29/13

***Edit at 1:15pm - no real changes to the forecast for storms tonight.  Timing remains as indicated below, with the possibility of discreet cells forming ahead of the main squall line.  If these cells develop, they could affect the western Mississippi Delta area as early as 6:00pm.

***Edited at 11:20am to update Hazardous Weather Outlook and Storm Prediction Center graphics***

The information below is drawn from this morning's forecast.  I will post an update after 1:30pm today with the latest information.

To summarize: strong to severe storms are expected to develop and affect the area late this evening through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning.  Areas generally north of Interestate-20 have the highest risk for severe weather, including damaging winds up to 80 miles per hour and strong tornadoes.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1032 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 AND 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE ARKLAMISS BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 TO 45 MPH IN THE
ADVISORY LOCATIONS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SECURE ALL LOOSE OUTDOOR
ITEMS AND BEWARE OF ANY OLDER OR ROTTED TREES THAT COULD BE TOPPLED.

FOR TONIGHT...A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
BRING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME
TORNADOES. DUE TO A RARE COMBINATION OF INTENSE WIND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOME HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH AND A STRONG
TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 9PM AND 3AM BEFORE MOVING
EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0409 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   ...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
   OVER PARTS OF THE OZARK REGION AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
   EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES...SOME
   STRONG...OVER PARTS OF THE OZARK REGION AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
   
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
   
          MUCH OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
          FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA
          FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
          NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
          FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
          FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS
   
   ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS AND THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWARD
   TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
   
   A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WINDS
   THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
   FRONT AND DRY LINE ADVANCING EASTWARD.  ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT
   SHOULD ONLY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER
   WINDS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. 
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST
   THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OKLAHOMA...PARTS OF NORTH
   TEXAS AND EASTERN KANSAS. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON.  A MORE SIGNIFICANT
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH
   TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHERN
   LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
   MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE WHERE DAMAGING WINDS
   AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD.  THE SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT WILL SPREAD FARTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIALLY THE
   LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A
   FEW TORNADOES.
   
   STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
   SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
   WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
   WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
   TODAY.

 The graphic below depicts the probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point.  The hatched area indicates a 10% or greater probability of a strong tornado (EF2-EF5) within 25 miles of a given point.

This graphic depicts the probability of damaging winds of 57 miles per hour or greater within 25 miles of a given point.  The hatched area indicates a 10% or greater probability of damaging winds of 74 miles per hour or greater within 25 miles of a given point.

***DO NOT USE THIS WEBSITE AS YOUR SOLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS WEBSITE DELIVERS FOCUSED INFORMATION FOR A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREA AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TIMELY WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION***